In this assignment, you will create and evaluate the quality of
several forecasts using multiple forecasting methods. You can use
Excel's spreadsheet capabilities to do the calculations for you and
streamline your effort on the assignment. Just be sure to record
your answers on the answer section provided in the assignment
spreadsheet.

You are responsible for creating the weekly forecast for Products X, Y, and Z for War Eagle Trading Company (WETCO). Create and evaluate forecasts as described in questions 1-10 Instructions below. Enter your answers in the table provided at the bottom of the assignment. All forecasts should be reported to the nearest whole number. Use the following in creating all forecasts n 3 Wt-1 = .6 Wt-2 = .3 Wt-3 = 1 Wt4 .01 Product X Product Y Product Z Historical Historical Historical Week Demand Week Demand Week Demand 5,100 1 $ 1 $ 1 $ 2 $ 3 $ 5,000 7,500 2 $ 3 $ 2 $ 3 $ 4,800 4,800 4,700 3,900 3,000 4,700 4 $ 5 $ 6 S 7 $ 8 $ 9 $ 1) Create a Simple Moving Average Forecast for Week 10 for 4 $ 4 $ 5,100 8,100 4,900 5 $ 6 $ 5 $ 6 $ 7 $ 8 $ 4,600 2,800 5,100 4,900 2,900 4,900 7 $ 4,300 8,800 5,000 8 S 4,000 3,200 5,100 9 $ 9 $ 4,300 7,500 4,900 2) Create a Weighted Moving Average Forecast for Week 10 for 3) Create an Exponential Smoothing Forecast for Week 10 for each product. Use the average of weeks 1-8 as the forecast 4-6) Assume week 10 actual demand for each product is shown below. Create SMA. WMA, and ES forecasts for week 11 each Product Z Product X Product Y Historical Historical Historical Week Demand Week Demand Week Demand 10 $ 10 $ 10 $ 3,800 4,100 4,800 7-9) Assume the week 11 actual demand for each product is $5,000. Calculate the Mean Absolute Distribution for each product/each forecast based on the results for weeks 10 and 10) Which forecast method produced the most accurate forecasts f Answer Sheet Product X Product Y Product Z Week Week Week Forecast Forecast Forecast 10 Q1) SMA Forecast Q2) WMA Fore cast 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 Q3) ES Forecast Q4) SMA Forecast Q5) WMA Forecast EE86 6|
Q6) ES Forecast 11 11 11 MAD MAD MAD Q7) MAD SMA Q8) MAD WMA Q9)MAD ES Best Best Best Q10) Best Forecast

### Answer Preview

1) Simple moving average Abs(error) 17 Week Historical Demand Forecast 18 1 7500 5137.5 19 4800 6791.25 20 3000 5397.38 21 4 8100 3719.21 22 2800 6785.76 23 2900 3995.73 6 24 3228.72 7 8800 25 8 3200

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